The full record

Every pick we publish is written to a permanent record before kickoff and settled from the final score. Losses stay on the page. Hit rate is always shown next to the number of picks behind it.

Small sample. Only 10 picks have been settled so far. Percentages on this page will move around a lot until there are at least 100. Do not read a trend into them yet.

Last 30 days

30%

3 won · 7 lost · 10 picks

All time

30%

3 won · 7 lost · 10 picks

By tier

The two tiers are not equally accurate by design: premium holds the five biggest confidence gaps of the day, free holds the next five.

Premium

33%

3 won · 6 lost · 9 picks

Free (lower confidence tier)

0 won · 1 lost · 1 picks

By market

Match result

30%

3 won · 7 lost · 10 picks

Calibration

When the model says 70%, does it happen about 70% of the time? Each band compares the stated probability with what actually happened. Brier score 0.2239 measures the same thing in one number: lower is better, 0.25 is a coin flip.

30-40% predicted2 picks

Said37%

Happened0%

40-50% predicted2 picks

Said44%

Happened0%

50-60% predicted2 picks

Said54%

Happened50%

60-70% predicted3 picks

Said62%

Happened67%

70-80% predicted1 picks

Said70%

Happened0%

80-100% predicted0 picks

Said0%

Happened0%

Day by day

Every day the top picks ran, with the wins and losses side by side. Days are in Nairobi time.

Fri 23 Oct0 won · 0 lost · not settled yet

Thu 22 Oct1 won · 2 lost · 33%

Fri 16 Oct0 won · 0 lost · not settled yet

Tue 13 Oct0 won · 0 lost · not settled yet

Mon 12 Oct1 won · 5 lost · 17%

Sun 11 Oct0 won · 0 lost · not settled yet

Sat 10 Oct1 won · 0 lost · 100%

Fri 2 Oct0 won · 0 lost · not settled yet

Thu 1 Oct0 won · 0 lost · not settled yet

Recent settled picks

Void

Alaves vs Malaga

La Liga · Match result · Alaves to win · 50% · premium

Void

Torino vs Monza

Serie A · Match result · Torino to win · 42% · premium

Void

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

Belgian Pro League · Match result · Kortrijk to win · 45% · premium

Void

NAC Breda vs Heracles

Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · Match result · NAC Breda to win · 58% · premium

Void

Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor

Süper Lig · Match result · Alanyaspor to win · 47% · premium

Won

Ajax vs Atalanta

UEFA Europa Conference League · World · Match result · Ajax to win · 57% · premium

2-0

Lost

Bournemouth vs AC Milan

UEFA Europa League · World · Match result · AC Milan to win · 44% · premium

3-0

Lost

Juventus vs Rennes

UEFA Europa League · World · Match result · Juventus to win · 50% · premium

2-2

Void

Burnley vs Wolves

Championship · England · Match result · Burnley to win · 47% · premium

Void

Le Mans vs Toulouse

Ligue 1 · Match result · Le Mans to win · 41% · premium

Void

Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Serie A · Match result · Frosinone to win · 52% · premium

Void

Heerenveen vs Excelsior

Eredivisie · Match result · Heerenveen to win · 42% · premium

Void

Inter vs Club Brugge KV

UEFA Champions League · World · Match result · Inter to win · 41% · premium

Void

Arsenal vs Lille

UEFA Champions League · World · Match result · Arsenal to win · 54% · premium

Void

Galatasaray vs Barcelona

UEFA Champions League · World · Match result · Barcelona to win · 55% · premium

Void

Villarreal vs Napoli

UEFA Champions League · World · Match result · Napoli to win · 36% · premium

Void

Lens vs Sporting CP

UEFA Champions League · World · Match result · Sporting CP to win · 50% · premium

Lost

Famalicao vs Alverca

Primeira Liga · Match result · Famalicao to win · 61% · premium

1-4

Lost

Levante vs Sevilla

La Liga · Match result · Levante to win · 45% · premium

3-3

Lost

Coventry vs Newcastle

Premier League · Match result · Newcastle to win · 38% · premium

4-1

Lost

Torino vs Udinese

Serie A · Match result · Udinese to win · 36% · lower confidence tier

2-1

Won

Atalanta vs Venezia

Serie A · Match result · Atalanta to win · 62% · premium

3-1

Lost

PAOK vs Kalamata

Super League Greece · Match result · PAOK to win · 70% · premium

1-3

Void

Lazio vs Monza

Serie A · Match result · Lazio to win · 56% · premium

Void

Lecce vs Bologna

Serie A · Match result · Bologna to win · 39% · premium

Void

Nice vs Strasbourg

Ligue 1 · Match result · Strasbourg to win · 47% · premium

Void

Motherwell vs Celtic

Scottish Premiership · Match result · Celtic to win · 54% · premium

Void

Como vs AS Roma

Serie A · Match result · AS Roma to win · 38% · lower confidence tier

Void

Utrecht vs Willem II

Eredivisie · Match result · Utrecht to win · 57% · premium

Won

Arsenal vs Leeds

Premier League · Match result · Arsenal to win · 64% · premium

2-1

Statistical model only, not financial or betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+. How the model works